
As battery technology keeps improving, charging infrastructure expands, and cheaper battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are introduced to the market, analysts are projecting an 18% growth rate in the global electric vehicle market for 2025. According to Rho Motion, a leading research house in the field of EVs, it expects double-digit growth for all major markets.
China is projected to grow 17% or in the area of 12.9 million. The United States and Canada are estimated to grow 16% at around 2.1 million units, and the European Union, the European Free Trade Association, and the United Kingdom are supposed to rise at 15% or 3.5 million units. Globally, over 20 million electric vehicles are forecasted to be sold.

According to Rho Motion head of research Iola Hughes: “If 2024 was the year of elections, 2025 is the year of legislation. The EU is seeing emission targets come into place, Trump’s presidency promises change for the US, and China continues the popular trade-in scheme. Still, we anticipate a steady year of growth across all regions, with China continuing to lead the charge. China’s grip on the global market isn’t going anywhere this year with several new plants set to open around the world, expanding its foothold internationally. Car manufacturer bosses in the EU will be experiencing some sleepless nights in 2025 as long-anticipated emissions targets come into effect this year, and few are adequately prepared with billions of euros of fines on the line. Following his inauguration, President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda is in full swing, and though the removal of EV tax credits is going to impact the long-term market, little change will be seen this year as the electrification of vehicles is here to stay.”

With emissions standards in the European market taking effect this year, and an average fleet target of 93.6g/km of carbon dioxide—a 15% reduction in emissions compared to a 2021 baseline figure—car manufacturers will have no choice but to market EVs or face stiff penalties.
How big? For every 1g/km of carbon dioxide over the manufacturer’s required target, they will be fined €95 for every car sold for the year. According to an explainer in Autovista24, if a manufacturer missed its target by 5g/km and it sold 100,000 vehicles, it would be slapped with a €47.5-million fine.

China is still projected to be the biggest market (and manufacturer) for EVs, with rapid expansion in overseas markets. BYD and Great Wall Motor are building EV factories in Brazil, and these are set to begin production this year, too. BYD is also planning to begin production in Hungary this year. Its domestic market continues to enjoy trade-in subsidies, but consolidation of manufacturers is also expected as smaller players are not expected to be able to continue operating at a loss for much longer.
Despite uncertainty in the North American markets (USA and Canada) due to President Trump’s threats of tariffs and intent to end EV tax credits, manufacturers are already implementing plans that had been set even before he took over.
Honda, for example, is set to begin EV production in Ohio in late 2025, while Ford is seeing success with the Mustang Mach-E, which could be duplicated in other model lines.
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